LostInaFog.com

You know its coming…Apple’s 30th Anniversary is April 1st and we all expect (Steve as much as said so) some cool anouncements in early April. Of course I have no idea, no inside information, no tipsters. But I do have a brain and some of the next steps seem obvious. So here’s what’s coming…

New iBook replacement–this will be the low end of the MacBook line as the iBook and PowerBook lines merge into the new name. It’ll be single core and sounds like it will carry a 13″ screen. Likelihood is 90%.

New iBook lite–or whatever they call it, but I think Apple is ready to finally ship a micro-notebook. They can offer a smaller screen (10″? 12″) version of the MacBook, possibly with some tablet features judging by all the recent patent filings dealing with touch control, with a full OS X running and decent battery life. Think of it as a more fully-capable Origami. Likelihood is 50%.

Touchscreen video iPod–so maybe all those recent touchscreen applications filed are really just about the new touchscreen video iPod. I think they could sell this thing. The 5G iPod proved that somebody out there is willing to shell out $$ to watch TV shows on a tiny screen. I’d be more interested in it for video podcasts, etc. But perhaps I’m just a narrow-minded cheap bastard. If the battery life is decent, however, I think they’d sell a ton of these. It seems the inevitable next step. Likelihood is 70%.

And this is an anniversary announcement and I think Apple has to have a “surprise” up its sleeve. I think it will be an iPod phone, possibly a special from Moto or another partner, running on Cingular’s network on announcement. I’ve had a hard time thinking that this will be a big deal. That photo above is a fake, fyi, but maybe a reasonable approximation. Certainly the ROKR from Moto earlier was a complete failure, IMHO. Was it because it only held a hundred songs? Or that folks worry about killing their phone battery by listening to podcasts and music all day? I’m happy with my current set up of a Treo 650 and my 4G iPod, but who knows. I think Apple will do this as much as a defensive move as a true growth strategy. They don’t want to not have a cell presence for iTunes as the Verizons and Sprints move big time into this market. Likelihood is 50%.

Guessing Apple’s next move is a fun game. I’m still so happy with my 15″ Al Powerbook that I’m probably not in the market for any of these. But by 2007 it will be time to replace it with that 2nd generation MacBook Pro. They’ll have all the kinks worked out by then. And you know, that touchscreen iPod might just be too cool to resist…

UPDATE — Well, the iPhone (or whatever) is looking less likely in the near term. Think Secret, which has probably the best track record among the mac rumor sites is reporting it is delayed into 2007. And Apple’s Anniversary looks to be passing without much mention from the mothership so far. We didn’t expect these announcements until early-mid-April, but who knows. They do have to announce the iBook replacements shortly or risk missing education orders for the next school year. So maybe we get MacBooks to replace the iBook, bigger PowerBooks and ?? something else fun? It;s hard to imagine that the HiFi box is really the highlight of the research group working on digital devices. And I want my video touchscreen iPod!